Jua · How it works
Jua is an African prediction market where real money meets real knowledge. Trade on elections, sports, crypto, and more. Prices are shown in USDC with KES as a local reference.
The process
01 — What is a prediction market?
A prediction market turns a yes/no question into a tradable contract. People buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen — and prices automatically reflect the crowd's collective estimate of each outcome's probability.
Live example · Kenya 2027 Elections
Will William Ruto win the 2027 presidential election?
If you buy YES
You pay 42¢ per share. If Ruto wins, each share pays $1.00. Buy 100 shares for $42 → collect $100 → profit $58 (+138%)
If you buy NO
You pay 58¢ per share. If Ruto loses, each share pays $1.00. Buy 100 shares for $58 → collect $100 → profit $42 (+72%)
02 — YES and NO shares explained
Every Jua market is a binary outcome — it either happens (YES) or it does not (NO). Buying a side is placing a stake on your prediction. You do not need to be an expert — you need to be right more often than the price implies.
03 — Odds and probability pricing
Jua uses a central limit order book (CLOB). Prices come from the best bids and asks posted by traders — not from a house or fixed formula.
When you place a limit order, it rests on the book until another trader crosses your price. Market orders execute immediately against the best available resting liquidity (fill-and-kill).
On binary markets, Yes and No prices are linked: they should sum to roughly 100% when the book is balanced.
// Mid price from order book mid = (best_bid + best_ask) / 2 // Binary complement price_NO ≈ 1 - price_YES
04 — Funding your account
Jua settles in USDC on Polygon. Fund your account from any compatible wallet, trade on-chain, and withdraw back to your wallet when you are ready. Balances display a KES equivalent so you always have local context.
05 — Security and transparency
Unlike traditional betting platforms, Jua's settlement layer is built on blockchain technology. Trade logic, payouts, and fund custody are governed by smart contracts — not by manual processes alone.
Smart contract settlement
Market resolutions and payouts are executed by smart contracts on Polygon. Once a market resolves, winnings are distributed automatically.
On-chain transparency
Trades and settlements are recorded on a public blockchain. Liquidity, volume, and payout history can be verified independently.
Instant payouts
When a market resolves, winning shares are credited atomically. No manual approval step is required for your winnings.
Segregated user funds
User USDC is held in escrow contracts, separate from Jua operating capital. Your balance remains withdrawable.
Go deeper
Common questions
A prediction market is a platform where people buy and sell shares in the outcome of future events. The price of a share reflects the crowd's estimated probability that an event will occur. For example, if YES shares for "Will Bitcoin hit $150K?" trade at 58¢, the market believes there is roughly a 58% chance it happens. When the event resolves, winning shares pay out at $1.00 each.
No — but knowledge is your edge. The best predictors on Jua follow politics, sports, financial news, or crypto markets closely. The more you know about a topic, the better your predictions can be. You can start small and build your track record over time.
You profit when you buy shares at a low price and they resolve at $1.00. Example: you buy YES shares on a market at 22¢ per share. You spend $22 for 100 shares. If the outcome is YES, you receive $100 — a profit of $78. You can also sell positions early to lock in profits or cut losses before resolution.
Jua charges a small fee on each trade, deducted when you buy or sell. M-Pesa and card deposits include a transparent onramp spread; blockchain network fees may apply when moving USDC on-chain. Withdrawals carry standard network gas fees only.
Each market has clear resolution criteria set when it is created. Our team resolves markets using publicly verifiable sources such as official announcements, certified sports results, major news outlets, and on-chain data. We publish the resolution source for every market. If you believe a resolution is incorrect, you can submit a dispute with evidence.
Yes. USDC balances can be withdrawn to your connected wallet. Processing time depends on Polygon network conditions. You can also sell open positions early to free up funds before market resolution.
Jua operates as a skill-based prediction platform. Users must be 18 years or older. We encourage responsible participation — never trade more than you can afford to lose. Review our Terms of Service and Responsible Trading Policy for more details.
Join predictors already trading on Jua. Fund with USDC on Polygon and start with your first market today.
Jua is an African prediction market platform built for clarity and access. We price markets in USDC and show KES as a local reference so traders across the continent can participate with familiar context.