politicsNigeriaopen

Nigeria presidential election winner

Part of Nigeria Elections 2027 →

Volume: KSh 448.5k Vol.
Reveals in: 4 months
Source: inec

Probability history

Bola Tinubu40%Atiku Abubakar23%Peter Obi27%Sowore Omoyele10%

Resolution

Market rules

Incumbent President Bola Tinubu holds a clear lead in trader consensus for the January 2027 Nigerian presidential election, supported by his All Progressives Congress (APC) control of most states, a confirmed ticket with Vice President Kashim Shettima, and structural advantages from incumbency. Opposition fragmentation has reinforced this positioning, with Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso on the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) ticket, Atiku Abubakar paired with Rotimi Amaechi on the African Democratic Congress (ADC), and other contenders including Omoyele Sowore further splitting anti-incumbent support. Recent campaign openings in August 2026 and ongoing realignments have highlighted these divisions, even as surveys show widespread public dissatisfaction with economic conditions and security. Traders appear to weigh these factors more heavily than favorability ratings favoring Obi.

Source: inec

Verification: https://www.inecnigeria.org/

Background

Context

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).

Market outcomes

Live

Bola Tinubu
40¢ per share · ≈ KSh 52.00 · KSh 179.4k Vol.
40%
No60¢
Atiku Abubakar
23¢ per share · ≈ KSh 30.00 · KSh 103.2k Vol.
23%
No77¢
Peter Obi
27¢ per share · ≈ KSh 35.00 · KSh 121.2k Vol.
27%
No73¢
Sowore Omoyele
10¢ per share · ≈ KSh 13.00 · KSh 44.9k Vol.
10%
No90¢

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