Will the Court of Appeal give Vodacom back its Safaricom stake by 31 March?

This market resolves to "Yes" if, by 31 March 2027, 23:59 EAT, the Court of Appeal delivers judgment setting aside the High Court's 15 September 2026 decision so that the sale of the 15% stake to Vodacom stands. It resolves to "No" if the appeal is dismissed, if no judgment is delivered by that date, or if the judgment leaves the sale void. A later Supreme Court ruling does not change the result.

Kenya sold 15% of Safaricom to Vodacom for Sh204.3 billion, lifting the South Africans to about 55% control of the company that runs M-Pesa. On 15 September the High Court declared the sale unconstitutional, null and void, and ordered the shares returned to the state. On 13 October the Court of Appeal refused to suspend that ruling "for lack of merit" but fast-tracked the main appeal. Kenya's crown jewel is in legal limbo, and the Treasury may have to hand back roughly $1.6 billion it has already spent.